As a realist, I know that the odds are very much against Derek Jeter surpassing Pete Rose for the most hits in the major leagues. As a fan of the game, I hope that the odds are incorrect.Jeter, in his 18th Major League season, is exactly 1,000 hits behind Pete Rose after Tuesday night's home run off Francisco Liriano. After 18 seasons in the big leagues, Rose was only 622 hits behind the former record holder, Ty Cobb. Even then, it took Rose another five seasons to surpass Cobb's mark of 4,189 hits.
In order for Jeter to surpass Rose in five years, he would have to average 200 hits per season, which would mean he can't decline at all, which is hard to expect for someone his age. In order for Jeter to surpass Rose in seven years, he would have to average 142 hits per season, which is also a pretty unreasonable expectation. It's hard to imagine Jeter playing past 45 years old.
One question is this: if Jeter declines considerably, would he continue playing? By all accounts, Jeter's level of pride rivals that of Joe DiMaggio. It's hard to see Jeter either changing positions any time soon, which he has resisted for a long time, or continuing to play when he's a hint of his former self and can't help the Yankees win.
Jeter might be satisfied with his career totals as they are. He's no doubt the best shortstop in Yankee history, holds the Yankee hit record, and is the only Yankee in the 3000 hit club. The only reason I could see Jeter playing deep into his 40's is to keep winning championships. He probably will never be satisfied with the number of rings he has.
Look, I want to believe he can do it, but it just doesn't seem likely. On the other hand, John Sterling is right when he says "you can't predict baseball."
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